How Long Do Major Innovations Take to Get Widespread Commercial Acceptance?

Thanks to Ivan Idso for referencing this study on the Journal of Nuclear Physics.

If a revolutionary energy technology came on the scene, and worked well, how long would it take to get a firm foothold, and start to displace other established energy sources? That is a question considered in a paper titled “How long does innovation and marketing in the energy sectors take? Historical case studies of the timescale of invention,”  published in the journal Energy Policy 123, on December 2018,

The answer of the authors of this paper is that if history is to be our guide, it can take a long time. The researchers looked at 13 key technologies that had been developed since the end of the 19th century which were: cars, cathode ray tube TV, nuclear power, combined cycle gas turbine, solar photovoltaics, videocassette recorder, wind electricity, cash cards and ATMs, mobile phones, compact fluorescent light bulbs, lithium ion rechargeable batteries, thin film transistor LCD TVs, and LED lighting.

The researchers found that on average, the average time from invention to widespread commercialization was 32 years. The technology with the shortest time was the LCD TV (20 years), and the longest was the car (69 years). In terms of electricity generation technology, the average time was 43 years:

The two renewable generation technologies, solar PV (55 years in Germany) and wind (40 years in Denmark), also have amongst the longest timescales of the 13 innovations included in our study. Slow diffusion timescales for renewable energy technologies were observed in the early 2000s in European countries by Negro et al. (2012), who point to a range of innovation system failures which constrain their deployment, such as a lack of long term and consistent institutional support. Such failures are compounded by lock-in to incumbent fossil fuel technologies which have become optimally aligned with supporting institutions and have benefited from economies of scale and technological learning over extensive periods of time.

Many of us like to think that if a radical new technology with obvious advantages came on the scene that it would be widely accepted and adopted rapidly, but this study provides examples showing that this may not necessarily be the case.

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Proposal for Development of a LENR Reactor (Lakewood University, Canada)

Thanks to Jed Rothwell for posting about this on the vortex-l mailing list:

A Canadian researcher at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, Ontario has written a proposal for the development of a LENR reactor. It’s not exactly clear to me who the proposal is directed towards, but from the information on this site it looks like an appeal for funding and/or assistance.

The interesting thing is that he provides some detailed research background in which he claims the following:

Replicable experiments of low energy nuclear reactions (LENRs) producing helium in several hydrogen loaded metals (palladium, stainless steel, iridium and molybdenum) were successfully performed. A new theory providing explanation of the observed results was developed. The experiments were performed in a vacuum chamber seeking a low probability of unknown contributing factors while using relatively low concentrations of the interacting gases used to generate helium and energy (heat).

It has been found that the chamber gas environment of D2 and H/H2 interacted with the metal samples through their surfaces generating 3He and 4He and that these interactions are based on solid properties. Further observations found:

Mass analysis showed a relatively high amount of 3He;
Mass analysis showed a relatively high amount of 4He/D2 and a relatively significant amount of 4HeH confirming a correspondingly high amount of 4He;
DC plasma spectroscopy showed peaks typical for both 3He and 4He.

The experiments were carried out in two modes – without plasma and with a plasma containing both D and H ions. In the second mode the kinetic energies of both D and H ions were determined and it was found that the amounts of both 3He and 4He increased with increase of these energies.

The full proposal can be read here.

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2019 Cold Fusion [LANR] Colloquium at MIT, March 23-24

Thanks to JohnO for letting me know about this upcoming event. Information comes from this link: from the Cold Fusion Times website.

The 2019 Cold Fusion [LANR] Colloquium at MIT
Come help us celebrate the 30th anniversary of the announcement of cold fusion
Cold fusion = LANR (Lattice Assisted Nuclear Reactions)

When/Where: Sat., March 23, , and Sun. Mar. 24, 2019
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

The 2019 Cold Fusion/LANR Colloquium at MIT marks the 30th anniversary of the initial CF announcement. This Colloquium is also one of a series of Scientific and Engineering Colloquia discussing Cold Fusion, its theory, physics, electrochemistry, material science, metallurgy, and electrical engineering.

These Colloquia have been organized for more than a decade by JET Energy Incorporated and the Energy Production and Energy Conversion Group at MIT, with additional support of our colleagues involved in the study of lattice assisted nuclear reactions.

Our goal is to increase excellence of science and engineering and improved public awareness of the development of this important field.

The organizing theme in 2019 involves the actual scientific and engineering “road” from achieving the hydrided lattices in nickel and palladium and similar metals, to releasing the desired Excess Energy.

Tentative speakers include
Peter Hagelstein
Mitchell Swartz
Thomas Claytor
Mel Miles
George Miley (via assoc.)
Yasuhiro Iwamura
Hideki Yoshino
Francesco Celani
Fran Tanzella
David Nagel
Steven Katinsky
Louis Dechiaro
Robert Smith, Jr
Brian Ahern
Florian Meltzer
Thomas Dolan
Thomas Grimshaw
and more

More information here:

Map of MIT here:

Poster sessions can share valued experience, findings,
data,&etc. on this important subject. and get great feedback.
If interested in submitting poster/paper, send the subject title, abstract paper or poster to More details will then follow
and A cash award will be given to the best poster.


US Navy Patents Could Mean “Star Trek Technology World” (Next Big Future)

Thanks to Causal Observer for providing a link to an article on Next Big Future which highlights some patents filed by the US Navy (inventor Salvatore Cezar Pais) that Brian Wang of NBF states

” The least extreme is a patent for Piezoelectricity-Induced Room Temperature Superconductor. The other two patents are gravity wave generator and inertial mass reduction.

If these could be realized as technologies then we are talking Star Trek level spaceships. The gravitational wave generator could be used for propellentless propulsion to near the speed of light. Being able to reduce inertia would also mean capabilities which currently seem beyond known physics.

The more likely situation is that these will not lead anywhere and are incorrect.”

1. Piezoelectricity-Induced Room Temperature Superconductor (2019) Patent US 20190058105A1

2. High-Frequency Gravitational Wave Generator (2017) Patent

3. Craft using an inertial mass reduction device (2016) Patent US10144532B2

Bob Greenyer has made the following comment:

Inspired by US NAVY room temp superconductor patent, John Hutchison spills beans on and old ‘battery replacer’ unit. [John Hutchison shows a sketch of a military battery that he states was “drawn out to me by a contractor” and “confirmed by talking to spooks in Ireland about it”]


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A Synopsis of Nuclear Reactions in Condensed Matter (GEC Technical Report, 2019)

Thanks to Joseph J. for posting a link to a new report written by Lawrence Forsley and Pamela Mosier Boss titled “A Synopsis of Nuclear Reactions in Condensed Matter”

The report is a synopsis of refereed publications in the field of Condensed Matter/LENR which focus on the co-deposition protocol which the authors have written about previously, providing many references to articles and papers in the field.

They write:

Most important, the co-deposition protocol discussed in many of these papers show independent reproducibility and replication across multiple laboratories in five countries negating two primary criticisms of Condensed Matter Nuclear Science (CMNS): irreproducibility and lack of independent replication. The significance of condensed matter nuclear reactions cannot be overstated. Successful commercialization will be paradigm shifting, to  say the least.

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Exotic Spiraling Electrons Discovered by Physicist (Rutgers University News Release)

Thanks to Axil for pointing out this news release from Rutgers University posted here:

Exotic spiraling electrons discovered by physicists
Rutgers-led research could lead to advances in lighting and solar cells


Rutgers and other physicists have discovered an exotic form of electrons that spin like planets and could lead to advances in lighting, solar cells, lasers and electronic displays.

It’s called a “chiral surface exciton,” and it consists of particles and anti-particles bound together and swirling around each other on the surface of solids, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Chiral refers to entities, like your right and left hands, that match but are asymmetrical and can’t be superimposed on their mirror image.

Excitons form when intense light shines on solids, kicking negatively charged electrons out of their spots and leaving behind positively charged “holes,” according to lead author Hsiang-Hsi (Sean) Kung, a graduate student in Physics Professor Girsh Blumberg’s Rutgers Laser Spectroscopy Lab at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

The electrons and holes resemble rapidly spinning tops. The electrons eventually “spiral” towards the holes, annihilating each other in less than a trillionth of a second while emitting a kind of light called “photoluminescence.” This finding has applications for devices such as solar cells, lasers and TV and other displays.

The scientists discovered chiral excitons on the surface of a crystal known as bismuth selenide, which could be mass-produced and used in coatings and other materials in electronics at room temperature.

“Bismuth selenide is a fascinating compound that belongs to a family of quantum materials called ‘topological insulators,'” said senior author Blumberg, a professor in the Department of Physics and Astronomy in the School of Arts and Sciences. “They have several channels on the surface that are highly efficient in conducting electricity.”

The dynamics of chiral excitons are not yet clear and the scientists want to use ultra-fast imaging to further study them. Chiral surface excitons may be found on other materials as well.


Rutgers co-authors include doctoral students Xueyun Wang and Alexander Lee, and Board of Governors Professor Sang-Wook Cheong in Rutgers Center for Emergent Materials, who developed the ultra-pure crystals for this study. Professor Dmitrii Maslov and graduate student Adamya Goyal at the University of Florida and principal investigator Alexander Kemper at North Carolina State University contributed to theory development and the interpretation of results.

The two types of ‘chiral surface excitons’ are on the right and left side of the image. They are generated by right- and left-handed light (photons in blue). The excitons consist of an electron (light blue) orbiting a ‘hole’ (black) in the same orientation as the light. The electron and hole are annihilated in less than a trillionth of a second, emitting light (photons in green) that could be harnessed for lighting, solar cells, lasers and electronic displays.

Rossi: ‘Momentous Events’ Have Taken Place Following E-Cat Presentation

I have been curious to find out more about the impact of Leonardo Corporation’s presentation in terms of customer interest, so I asked a few questions about it on the Journal of Nuclear Physics:

Frank Acland
February 18, 2019 at 5:27 PM
Dear Andrea,

Since the event on Jan 31st, can you say which of the following you have done?

a) Responded to inquiries from potential customers.
b) Made agreements with new customers.
c) Built E-Cat SK plants for new customers.
d) Delivered new E-Cat SK plants to new customers.
e) Monitored E-Cat SK installations remotely.

Andrea Rossi’s reply:

Andrea Rossi
February 18, 2019 at 6:43 PM
Frank Acland:
a) yes
b) on course
c) on course
d) on course
e) yes
After these 18 days from the presentation of January 31st I can say that momentous events happened that are strongly reinforcing our situation. This allows me to confirm that the presentation of has been very successful and that our target has been fully reached in perfect equilibrium with our possibilities.
Thanks also to the magnificent work made by you and Thomas Florek. Before the presentation , if you remember, I told you both ” Acland at the piano, Florek at the guitar and concertina, Rossi at the drums: if the Ecat doesn’t work, we have a plan B”: it appears the plan B will not be necessary.
Warm Regards,

By ‘on course’ I think Rossi means that these things are in process, but not yet completed. As he mentions that momentous events have happened, he does seem to be very satisfied with how things have gone so far. Plan B might have been fun, but I doubt it would have been very momentous. We will have to watch and see if any evidence for plan A materializes.

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Now Time to Bring LENR Energy Into the Climate Change Debate

The following post was originally published here on this new website — — , and is reposted here by permission.

Recently took place the 24th UNF Climate Change Conference in Katowice, Poland and after difficult negotiations, a long list of new decisions was finally adopted.

No matter the results of the Conference, one specific key problem for the work against Climate Change unfortunately still remains unsolved. In spite of all research and development, the known fossil-free energy sources, solar, wind, water, bio-fuel and nuclear, booth from economic and practical reasons, cannot be expanded quickly enough to replace the enormous energy production today coming from the main high polluting CO2 sources, oil, gas, and coal. Many experts involved agree that there is a real urgent need for new types of CO2-free renewable energy sources, cost-effective and practical enough to push both governments and private industry into years of a constant, market force driven race towards the necessary ending of burning fossils.

A good part of that need might very well be met by LENR energy but very few are already aware of this. The fact is that today only a very small fraction of the Climate Change Conference audience, as well as the general world public, has ever heard of the term LENR ( Low Energy Nuclear Reactions). Still, the truth is that for many years already a number of dedicated scientists have been eagerly working to find out if LENR could be mastered into a clean source of renewable energy. Many from this limited worldwide community and its supporters have believed so for several years and now even more after the recent first public demonstration of industrialized LENR Energy in practical use The presentation included the first-ever industrially produced LENR generator module continuously producing 20kW of heat energy as well as further details about function and performance. Also, the commercial conditions and initial strategy for worldwide expansion was presented.

If the presented advantages from practical use of LENR energy are even close to being confirmed, Jan 31, 2019, could definitely mark history in the long-term fight against  Climate Change.

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Infinity SAV Thread

Since there have been some posts in various threads, and as George has specifically requested it, here’s a thread about Infinity SAV, a South Korean company that I had not heard of until just recently. Infinity SAV claims it has successfully built a generator that operates using permanent magnets and bifilar coils; they also make induction heaters.

I thought I’d put up a dedicated thread here so comments and discussion can happen in one place.

A Facebook post talks about a recent demonstration they have carried out in South Korea.

The company’s website is here:

Their YouTube channel is here:

“The secret of Rossi revealed?” (Video)

I received the following from a reader regarding a new video made bb Russian physicist Igor Danillov titled “The Secret of Rossi Revealed?”. The reader provides a translation from Russian into English, admitting that there could be mistakes.

The secret of Rossi revealed?

Video of the Russian physicist Igor Danillov from 12 February 2019:


Igor Danillov proposes a hypothesis for the Rossi effect.

He examines this figure on the website of Vessela Nikolova:

His colleague Sergey Tsvetkov supposes that with the help of argon it becomes possible to achieve this enormous quantity of energy. In the reactor itself there is a thin wire of about 1 mm, which is about 1.5 cm long.

Igor thinks that the argon, which on the figure is connected only with the control panel, could be the source of Rossi’s secret.

According to the Hydrino theory, in a normal situation the hydrogen can not pass in a lower position. But in some special conditions such positions are accessible and we can achieve maximum output of 137 squared x 13.6. 13.6 is the energy of ionization of the hydrogen.

But in which conditions is this possible? If we have argon or helium in an energized condition, energy of 4 x 13.6 eV is radiated and when this energy is dissipated on the electrons of the hydrogen, these electrons can pass to this lower position.

In this connection there is a theory of Celani, the Italian physicist. He tries on this way to explain the classical work of Randell Mills.

So, in normal situation the hydrogen can’t pass in lower position. But when we heat it and mix it with helium or argon, then these lower positions become accessible.

In the theory of Celani there is a hypothesis about the electron’s structure. It is supposed that if on the electron energy of 4 x 13.6 eV is dissipated, the electron can pass to such “inner” positions. This inner, lower position in the hydrogen’s atom become accessible for it.

The recipe of Randell Mills is very simple: the hydrogen is mixed with helium or argon, then through this mixture electric currency is passed, a discharge. When we pass powerful electrical currency, the helium or argon ionize themselves, and going to the basic condition they radiate energy, this energy is dissipated to the electrons of the hydrogen and these electrons, or part of them, go to the lower position and radiate enormous quantity of energy.

In this theory we don’t speak about the Coulomb’s barrier. So is the Randell Mills’ plant working.

So Igor expresses the hypothesis that this is valid also for Rossi’s reactor. There is a composition of aluminium hydride and nickel and it is immersed somehow in argon. Then there occurs discharge and in this reactor runs the described process. The energy is very big, in the range of MeV, which gives this enormous power output.

So, Igor’s advice to the experimenters: they could try to replicate this. If you have a plant with COP=2, try to add argon and a discharge. And let us see, perhaps there really will begin such reaction and there will be really a huge energy output as in E-Cat.

Igor offers this hypothesis for consideration and for experimental examination. Here there are no nuclear reactions, simply the hydrogen’s electrons pass to lower positions.

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